14 day forecast shows 3 or 4 days either side of freezing and then a solid 10 days with below 0 highs and overnight lows -6 to -10. Not the -20 I'd like to see but 10 days in a row like that should be good.

My official prediction is full crust over morning of Dec 5th. What say you? Whether it sticks or not will remain to be seen. If it does that is basically 2 weeks ahead of last year.