Cautiously Optimistic, Ice is coming

14 day forecast shows 3 or 4 days either side of freezing and then a solid 10 days with below 0 highs and overnight lows -6 to -10. Not the -20 I'd like to see but 10 days in a row like that should be good.

My official prediction is full crust over morning of Dec 5th. What say you? Whether it sticks or not will remain to be seen. If it does that is basically 2 weeks ahead of last year.

I am with you on that prediction. There might be even more than a crusting if the forecast is correct

Hmmm. Define full crust over further.
I’m leaning towards so far I think we’re
behind last year and the weather man’s prediction
Lately is no better than a couple days out.
Although El Niño shouldn’t be an issue this year
They’re saying La Niña is strangely absent here.
Worldwide volcanic activity I believe is up this year too
So how that might impact things I’m not sure.
Man I hope it turns out better than last year. As last year was
Not great!

I can’t wait to see someone attempting this though….
https://youtube.com/shorts/Ihu4-UUg4Do?si=vhdgvCEEJi0YfAd_

I would have a bad case of butt pucker.

I guess someone has to be first.

Negative teens coming up in the forecast at night now.

We could be on fishable ice by the opener.

It does feel like we are way ahead compared to the last few years but that can all change fast.

It's nice and frosty today.

Full crust to me is that first skiff of ice that is more or less lake wide. Looking at the forecast now i think the 5th is too early - maybe more like the 7th or 8th.

Comparing to last year we are actually at almost the exact same water temperature now as this time last year (5 to 6C). Difference though is last year it all went to &^*% in mid December with heat, rain and wind. If the forecast holds and if we avoid a big warm up and rain in December we will be good. That's why i am "cautiously" optimistic as those are 2 big ifs.

From this point last year 15 out of the last 34 days before the opener were above 0 and 14 of those days were in December - almost half the month. Of the days in December below 0 only 2 were negative teens.

I know predicting the weather forecast can be a crap shoot, but check out accu weather forecast for the month of December. It shows 18 nights that are colder than minus 10. If that happens we will be in real good shape for the opener.

For anyone living in the area, is there any ice forming in the protected bays?

It could be a start

For anyone living in the area, is there any ice forming in the protected bays?

Not that I've seen yet, I did see some small back ponds had a thin layer of Ice when I was taking a hike with the dogs but nothing significant.

The snow we got earlier this week is still on the ground which is something I guess but it's not much.

Beaver pond at my place (5 miles south of Nip) is about 10 acres in size and froze over now.

I'll take it with a grain of salt but that December forecast looks awesome. Not a single day the whole month above 0!!! If that holds true should be able ride the sled right out to the Manitous on opening day. Probs need to sacrifice a goat or something to the gods to make sure the forecast holds.